Ted Fang Tera Capital – Founder. “Although recovery is not back to 2019 levels, I’d say it’s a good 60% of what it was before,” said Ted Fang.


Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-economic-impact-germany-vietnam-v-shaped-recoveries-2020-7-1029372929

  • This article first appeared on 7 July 2020 as adapted from an article written by Shalini Nagarajan, Business Insider. All information is subject to change without notice.

It is becoming increasingly clearer that countries that moved aggressively and fast on Covid-19 are coming out of it in stronger economic shape, according to a handful of economists Business Insider spoke to this week.

Germany and Vietnam, two nations that locked down swiftly early in the pandemic are already showing V-shaped recoveries, while nations that were slow to react — such as India and Brazil — look much more like to see slow, L-shaped returns to normal.

Markets Insider gained insights from some experts in the field.

German rebound on business conditions

The German response drew praise from around the world for its success in containing the outbreak through mass testing, a swift lockdown, an impressive healthcare system, and admittedly some luck.

It achieved low fatality rates by closely monitoring those who tested positive and kept intensive care units well under capacity.

All of this has contributed to a seemingly rapid bounce-back in the German economy in recent months. One widely observed early indicator for Germany’s economic development is the Ifo business climate index.

The index rose to 86.2 in June from 79.7 in May — a 6.5 point increase, taking the index above the level seen in March.

Analysts at UBS said an assessment of Germany’s business conditions in June reflects the muted impact of the pandemic on manufacturing firms, while the mood in services improved considerably.

lfo Institute

However, UBS highlighted that the German index still signaled a recession similar to the one seen in July 2009, but both manufacturing and services moved swiftly towards the “upswing quadrant” as a result of widespread easing of mobility restrictions.

UBS projects German GDP to have fallen 9.8% in the second-quarter of the year, and to rebound by 6.3% in the third-quarter. The investment bank predicts overall GDP to fall by 6.3% in 2020, and to rise by 4.6% in 2021.

Despite a sharp projected increase next year, UBS does not expect Germany’s end-2021 GDP level to be the same as that seen during end-2019.

But in comparison to other economies, it is far ahead of the line.

Prompt harsh restrictions in Vietnam

Further away in the East, Vietnam had eased social distancing restrictions for most parts of the country on April 23 — far earlier than virtually all other economies except China, which as the first country hit by the virus, was able to ease lockdowns earlier.

Domestic flights resumed, but international travel was still held back.

Vietnam, the Southeast Asian country known for its tourism, had imposed harsh restrictions in the early phases of the spread of the virus.

Its willingness to reimpose restrictions if Covid-19 cases jumped and an increased confidence from a high level of testing might have supported its decision to ease the economy, UBS said.


Vietnam’s real GDP slowed from 7% in the last quarter of 2019 to 3.8% in first-quarter of 2020.

In recent years, mortgage lending was a major contribution for Vietnamese banks’ loan growth and profitability, according to UBS.

Its property market seems to be recovering quickly and the cash flow of key developers is still sound.


L-shaped recoveries for Latin America, the US, and India

Countries such as China and Korea that managed to prevent the virus from erupting into full-blown outbreaks will find more success in sustaining their respective economic recoveries following the initial bounce, said Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“At the other end of the spectrum, India’s clear mismanagement of the Covid-19 outbreak is an example of what not to do in a crisis situation,” he said, adding that its recovery will be the most “L-shaped of the major economies in Asia.”

The early stages of recoveries in Latin American economies have been “lackluster,” while those in US virus hotspot states have stalled, according to Simon MacAdam, senior global economist at Capital Economics.

“The euro-zone generally confronted the virus forcefully, and the region’s recovery appears to be one of the strongest,” MacAdam said.

He pointed out that emerging economies in Europe also dealt with the virus well, with only a few cases rising in Bulgaria.

Capital Economics

“While Jair Bolsonaro’s personal ambivalence on the matter of lockdown is well-reported, Latin American economies in general weren’t especially slow or lax about going into lockdown,” he said. “And yet this region’s recovery is the most lackluster in the world.”

The Nordic economies that were “forceful on the virus,” did not necessarily see good economic performance, but activity in their economies are among the closest to pre-virus levels, MacAdam said.

Fast-moving recoveries in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore

Apart from Germany and Vietnam, China has seen a speedy recovery too despite a recent spike in coronavirus cases.

“Although recovery is not back to 2019 levels, I’d say it’s a good 60% of what it was before,” said Ted Fang, CEO and founder of Singapore-based investment firm Tera Capital.

Smaller Asian markets will take longer to recover as inter-country travel remains restricted, he said.

Fang highlighted that several Chinese firms are intending to go public in Hong Kong, giving investors the ammunition to develop further interest across Asia — especially in technology due to scalability.

Against a backdrop of US-China tensions, investors worry over what direction markets will next take.

“China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia are good for its large consumer markets. Singapore has always been an excellent place to set up base for Asian expansion, but it has become even more important now for its talent pool, new financial incentives and connectivity,” Ted Fang said.

Ted Fang / MBS / Ted Fang, founder of Tera Capital, Tera Sotheby’s, Tera Partners & Frontier Group


Ted Fang is a consultant and advisor based in Singapore. He is the founder and former director of Tera Capital, Tera Partners & Tera Realty (Tera Sotheby’s Realty). Ted Fang is also the co-founder of Frontier Group, founded alongside his brothers, Harry Tan and David Tan whom they acquired the Days Inn master franchise together for Greater China from Wyndham Worldwide in 2003. Fang acquired the Sotheby’s Realty franchise for the Greater Shanghai markets in 2018.

Ted Fang Tera Capital – Founder. Brothers hit jackpot in China hotel sector

David Tan, Harry Tan & Ted Fang / Photo by Straits Times (ST) / Ted Fang, founder of Tera Capital, Frontier Group & Tera Sotheby’s

Brothers hit jackpot in China hotel sector
MAY 07, 2013, PUBLISHED AT 10:00 PM

Source: https://www.asiaone.com/brothers-hit-jackpot-china-hotel-sector

  • This article first appeared on 7 May 2013 as adapted from an article written by Esthert, Asia One. All information is subject to change without notice.

Three brothers (Ted Fang, Harry Tan & David Tan) from Singapore with a flair for the hospitality business have hit the jackpot, thanks to China’s booming middle class discovering the travel bug.

The brothers set up a single Chinese hotel of the all-American Days Inn group in 2004 and have not looked back.

Many of these are still under construction, but Frontier Group, the brothers’ Singapore-based investment firm, has secured either management or franchise contracts with them.

The number of operating hotels would be even higher if not for the group’s stringent quality controls, which have led to a few franchisees being shut down for flouting standards.

This ambitious foray into the hotel sector started when twins Harry and David Tan, 56, and younger half-brother Ted Fang, 46, bought the Days Inn master franchise rights for Greater China in 2003.

Expansion, which was previously done through securing new management and franchise contracts, has been robust. Revenue grew 76 per cent in 2010, a further 33 per cent in 2011 and gained 29 per cent last year.

And the figure is set to climb with the firm expected to add about 40 new hotels a year despite competition from other brands in a similar range, such as Holiday Inn and Mercure.

Most of the additions will be from management and franchising, while the rest will come through its leasing model.

Leasing, which the firm recently embarked on, is a more profitable strategy as the company leases an entire building and runs it as if the hotel was its own as opposed to just collecting management or franchising fees.

“We are already a leading brand in China and because we have so many years of experience and a good management team, we feel that we are ready to go into the leasing model so that we can capture more upside,” said Mr Fang.

Brothers (from left) Harry Tan, Ted Fang and David Tan run the highly successful all-American hotel chain Days Inn in China.

But the hospitality sector in China is rapidly changing with more domestic travellers on the back of the middle class’s rising affluence.

This has led to second- and third-tier cities receiving more visitors, which has in turn led to rising demand for mid-range hotels. Room rates are also steadily climbing.

Days Inn China chief executive officer Harry Tan, who has worked at the Shangri-La and Holiday Inn hotels in China, noted that foreigners made up 30 to 40 per cent of its hotel guests at first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

But this falls to about 10 per cent for second-tier cities and dips further, to less than 5 per cent, for third-tier ones.

In 2001, for instance, there were only about three hotels along Sanya Bay in Hainan Province, Mr Tan recounted. But there are about 20 now, highlighting the tremendous changes that have been happening in the sector as locals pack their bags and travel across the country.

“China travellers are under-travelled so there is still a lot of opportunities for business and leisure travel. I see a lot of potential in leisure travel, especially to resorts, as there are so many interesting places unexplored,” Mr Fang added.

The business also seems to be sitting in a comfortable spot, where economic cycles do not matter as much.

“Our niche market is good because when times are good, the two-star travellers want to upgrade and give themselves a treat to a three-star hotel. When times are bad, the five-star travellers want to save some money and move down to a four-star hotel,” said Mr Harry Tan.

That means the firm’s business is buffered and always has movement coming into its market to compensate for any loss, he said.

There are challenges though, including having to cope with competition and needing to train hotel staff from scratch in smaller cities, where few people have the industry experience and necessary expertise.

The company employs about 45 people at its corporate offices in Beijing and Shanghai and has about 10,000 staff running its hotels in China. It also has plans to list on a suitable stock exchange, possibly in two years when the “right time” comes.

Days Inn is owned by United States-based Wyndham Hotel Group, part of Wyndham Worldwide.


Ted Fang / MBS / Singapore


Ted Fang is a consultant and advisor based in Singapore. He is the founder and former director of Tera Capital, Tera Partners & Tera Realty (Tera Sotheby’s Realty). Ted Fang is also the co-founder of Frontier Group, founded alongside his brothers, Harry Tan and David Tan. They acquired the Days Inn master franchise together for Greater China from Wyndham Worldwide in 2003. In 2018, Fang acquired the Sotheby’s Realty franchise for the Greater Shanghai markets.

Interviews on Ted Fang can be found on Linkedin, The Star Malaysia, Medium, Reddit, Prestige Online, The Peak Magazine, Terrapin, Pinterest, Millionaire Asia & CNN, Everybody Wiki, Golden Wiki, Prabook & Peoplepill.

Ted Fang spent almost two decades in in Shanghai and Beijing, China.

Ted Fang was a competitive Singapore national squash player who participated in the British Squash Junior Open and the Malaysian Squash Junior Open championship.

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Ted Fang is the founder of Tera Capital, Tera Sotheby’s, Tera Partners & Frontier Group.